The definition of “outs” is the number of cards that will improve your poker hand that can come on the turn or river (in some cases the flop). Beginning players often don’t
know how to calculate outs and the “odds” that it gives you. In this article we will look at a more basic form of the concept and focus on first properly counting your outs, and
secondly what decision you should make after you’ve properly counted.
So let’s learn the very simple math in calculating outs, recognizing certain situations when you don’t have necessarily all the outs you might think you have, and what to do in the
situations whether you need to know if you have the odds to call (or even raise!) or fold.
In this situation our hero has pinned the villain down to a paired Jack hand. The read is something like J9 or JK or JQ. Let’s just say for the sake of argument and making things
simple you have the sickest read ever on your opponent in this hand and know he has J9 of diamonds. You check with Ace King high and he bets $3.50 into $8.25 making it a pot of $11.75. Do
we have the right odds to call this knowing what our opponent is holding? We know that if an Ace, King, or Queen falls, we win the hand. Anything else, and he wins the hand.
We know that there are 3 Aces, 3 Kings, and 4 Queens left in the deck (if we don’t see them, we assume they are live in the deck). The math here is simple as 3+3+4 = 10 outs. The
rule of thumb to calculate your odds for hitting your card on the next street is to multiply your outs by 2. If you have two streets left (e.g., going all-in with the turn and river
cards still to come), you multiply by 4. In this case, we’re a 80-20 dog to hit our card on the next street (10 outs x 2 = 20%). Are we getting Pot odds?
We are being asked to put $3.50 into $11.75, and we know that this amount represents about 30% of the pot. So from a strictly expressed odds perspective (not taking into consideration
what we might win if we hit our hand) this is a fold. Basically you would need this bet to be $2.25 to be getting odds on your money meaning the $2.25 call is only 19% of the pot and we
have a 20% chance of winning the hand (a positive expectation over the long haul).
Let’s look at a situation where there are multiple draws on multiple streets…
The situation on the turn has put our hero in a bit of a predicament. We don’t quite know what the villain has in this situation but we are definitely behind in the hand. Most
likely out opponent has an overpair (pocket 88, 99, or TT) or paired the 7 for trips. However, our hero is drawing to not one but two hands in the form of the top flush (Ace High), or a
straight draw (5 to 8 straight).
So – before looking at the bets/action here on the turn, how many outs does he have if we assume that our villain has an over pocket pair (99 for the sake of argument)? Answer: Any Ace
(pair of aces), any 3 (straight), any 8 (straight), or any spade (except the 9 of spades) are outs and would beat 99. There are three aces left, four 3s left, four 8s and 7 spades left
(13 total spades minus the 4 we see in the hand). However we have to subtract the 9 of spades which would give him a fullhouse. This means we have a total of 3+4+4+6= 17 outs! So we
roughly have 34% chance to win the hand (it’s actually 37%).
Our opponent throws a bet out of approximately 73% of the pot … meaning the expressed odds to win the hand here are not favorable for us to calling. However, there is something
called implied odds meaning if you do hit the hand, what do you figure the pot would be then? If we figure (again for the sake of argument you KNOW you’re opponent will stack
no matter what comes on the river) then the implied pot is actually $84. We calculate this by the current pot ($26) plus the amount we have to call at the turn ($11) plus the
opponent’s remaining stack ($47), so $26+$11+$47 = $84. If this is the case and we have these implied odds, we have tremendous odds ($11 is only 13% of $84) to call. If that was
the case (chances are it is not) then this is a snap call. The concept of implied odds is also brushed on the pocket pairs article and will be expanded upon at a later time.
Hopefully this article demonstrates how to calculate odds and the concept of pot odds. Remember there are 4 cards of every value from 2s to Aces. There are 13 cards of every suit, meaning if
you have a flush draw at the flop and that’s the only thing that will allow you to win your hand you have … yes that’s right – 9 outs! 9x4 = ~36% to hit your hand by
the river (assuming you go all-in after the flop).
Counting outs is a tremendous base skill you’ll need as you start your poker career. It is heavily used in tournament play and cash game players adhere to the statistical guidelines this
key concept will bring during tough call/raise/fold situations on the flop, turn, or river. Good luck, and don’t go fishing!
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Check Sean's blog for updates on his poker journey at: http://www.icemonkey9.com
If you are familiar with a HUD or have already read through the article, what we are going to do in this article is run a quiz for you by providing a hand up until a certain point and then
offer you the stats of the villain.
