We looked at some tough river decisions in Part 1 of our ‘Tough River Decisions Series’ and now we’ll
look at a few more since the river is often where the most profit and loss for a hand will take place. The tools we use are Holdem
Manager for hand archiving and Pokerazor for hand statistical analysis, and most importantly PokerHandReplays to watch the hand be
played in the slick flash replayer.
Hand 1: JJ called down to river, checks, and faces big river bet.
Our hero here is under the gun with JJ, a very tricky hand to play at any position much less one that will most likely be out of position postflop. Our hero only has a very small sample
size of hand histories on our villain but shows that the villain “hammon01” is playing a very donkish 42/4/1 game meaning he’s in a lot of flops and barely ever raising
preflop and plays passively.
Our hero slows down on the river since the villain has called three streets prior to the river. A seemingly harmless 10 of hearts comes on the river so our hero might be sneaky here and
attempting to get the villain to bluff a busted straight or flush, although if the villain has 24, 47, 66, TT, 33, or any 5 hand, the villain is way ahead. This villain isn’t
aggressive but we can assume that holding a set is unlikely for our villain who has never raised in the hand. So what would you do?
Given the hand range for the opponent, we’re never folding to this bet. In fact, when we use Pokerazor we see that our hand is best a whopping 94.9% of the time and we have 75%
equity in the hand. It’s probably time to throw in a raise here or at the very least call this river bet. I could even see a player justifying a min-raise here as hands like
AT or 77, 88, or 99 would be inclined to call.
What Really Happened: Our hero calls and the villain shows a busted flush draw of A7 of clubs. +$87 pot for the hero.
Hand 2: Poorly played flopped set faces river shove on scary board.
Our hero here shows off one of the more poorly played sets I’ve seen in a long time. For you novices out there, never play a set as meekly as our hero has played this one. Our
villain “shadi09” is a 44/20/5 maniac meaning this player is in a lot of pots and extremely (and perhaps recklessly) aggressive.
Our hero min raises the set on a board with two overcards with potential straight and flush draws. On wet boards like this you can’t simply min-raise into a very aggressive
opponent – you have to bet it properly. Our villain flats the min bet and the turn brings a fairly harmless 5 of spades. Our hero checks again and the villain bets only $5
into a $13 pot, and our hero flats this bet (again, bad move). Our hero finally shows some backbone when the J of diamonds hits (completing every draw!) and our villain snap-shoves over
the top. What do you do?
This is really a tough hand. We know that our villain is hyper-aggressive and is shoving his stack in on the scariest card that could have hit that river. We also know that our hero
(as played) has shown relatively little strength. Given that the villain is playing their top 20% hand range (he was the preflop raiser) we see that Pokerazor’s numbers are
actually quite surprising – our hand is best 97% of the time and we have 88% equity. I can imagine the following types of players acting as our hero thinking the following:
Donkey: “Sets never lose. EVER. CALL.”
TAG-FISH: “The draws all hit. This person is aggressive but can never bluff that. Fold.”
We’re still searching for an answer but the numbers don’t lie – we’re ahead of this villain so often that we have to call and hopefully see the biggest portion of
their hand range which includes Top or Second Pair (almost 50% of the time).
What Really Happened: Our hero makes the call and the villain shows KQ of diamonds for a Royal Flush. I wanted to include this hand to show that even a -$50 decision on your part can
still be the right one. Of course, everything is debatable in hindsight!
Hand 3: Bizarre Board with QQ against Tight Player
Our villain in this hand is a 15/13 TAG (tight-aggressive) type who only 4bets 2.5% of the time. Our hero flats the 4bet and we see an overcard hit the flop.
Our hero does the right thing by slowing down on the flop with the K but our villain checked first. On the turn we see another K hit, meaning that it’s unlikely that our villain
has a K but it does hit his 2.5% hand range in ridiculous fashion. Our hero bets the turn, is called, and is checked into at the river. What to do?
This is definitely a scary board against our villain’s range. Statistically speaking hands like TT and JJ are within that 2.5% threshold but we’re going to throw them out
since (historically speaking) nobody 4bets with those hands at 50nl but we are going to include AK offsuit. Given this set of circumstances there’s just one thing to
do – CHECK. Our hand is only best 4.55% of the time and we only have 12% equity. Shoving the rest of our $22 in has virtually no fold equity and if called is almost certainly
beat. Check and pray he’s playing outside his normal range.
What actually happened: Our hero shoves in the rest of his $22.75 and is called by AA and loses.
Read Related Playing Specific Situations Articles:
In this article we'll look at some hands from my hand histories at low stakes, specifically $0.50-$1 No Limit Hold'em (both 6max and Full Ring) and also give HUD stats of the villains and see
how that might affect our thinking in terms of making a decision.
